7-7

SPX might top around 902 - 910 before we move down

out ERX 25.60 pre-market, it got chance to go to 26ish today, but i dont want to be greedy.

7-6

sold all ERY @ 26
sold all FAZ @ 5.2

in small amount of ERX 23.7

7-2 estimate

SPX 910-922

actual SPX 919.32 - 931.92

pretty close on the low side, but almost 5pt off on the high, didnt expect that large of a fake rally in the morning.

7-1 Estimate

SPX range 920-927, chance to break down to 912

6-30 EOD

actual SPX range for today is 912-930, I was spot on! Beginner's luck?

added a bit more FAZ again, now avg 4.83.

XLF bounced down from 20MA, and now resting right above 200MA, let's see if that gets taken out tomorrow. If it does, XLF will test 11.50, we can see FAZ back into 5s when that happens.

6-30 Estimate

SPX 912-930

6-29 EOD

SPX comeplete wrong! i was betting on the down side. actual range 916-927.

FAZ is now .10 over the 200MA, but right on 20MA, see how it reacts to that. It's going up while the volume is going down.

Expecting a pull back tomorrow, might get out FAZ if the pull back is weak. probably in the 4.7-4.8 area.

ERX was up today, but it got drag back right under 200MA. Again, expecting it to go down from here if the market is willing, otherwise, I'm out on the next pull back.

6-29 Estimate

SPX 904 - 922

update: added a bit of faz, now avg 4.9

6-28 XLF

Been collecting FAZ, avg currently 4.97, will avg down on Monday IF it's still in the 4.7 or lower. Target: over 6

Here is a chart for XLF, which will give us an idea on how FAZ will perform.



you can clearly see the 200MA is a HUGE resist line from Jun 5 to 12. It's failure to breach it caused it to tank to 11.50 - 11.30 resist line.

Although it rallied the last 4 trading days, all it did is to form a bearish flag towards the 200MA.

On monday 200MA will be 11.97, we can expect XLF not to see >= 12 close again for some time as it spiral downwards.

Now, it might follow along the 200MA for a while before a serious tank, it all depends on how the market will perform.

My ideal scenario will be the financial leading the market DOWN.

if FAZ happen to rally above 200MA with good volume, i'm switching to FAS.

5-27 XLE

In ERY 22.75, Target: over $25



MACD is showing bearish sign, wide divergence heading down, this means any small rally will be sold, like the last few days. On top of that, fast MA is below 0, another bearish sign.

As you can see that nice little Bear flag forming in the past few days, let's see if the 200MA will be a good resist point and bounce off it.

200MA should be 48.45 on Monday, a good bounce off it can lead XLE to below 46.5 and eventually to 43.

But, if we close above it with good volume, we might have to wait for 20/50 MA as the next resist point, XLE can rally some more to around 49.

Beyond 50, I'm switching to ERX.